Matter & Substance
  July 18, 2019
Author: Michael Kidd

Predicting your company’s future performance

It's common for you to associate your CPA with historical financial data and performance; after all, audits and tax returns typically report what has already happened. But don't forget you can hire one to help predict how a company will perform in the future, too.

Prospective reporting options

There are three types of reports to choose from when predicting future performance:

  1. Forecasts. These prospective statements present an entity’s expected financial position, results of operations and cash flows. They’re based on assumptions about expected conditions and courses of action.
  2. Projections. These statements are based on assumptions about conditions expected to exist and the course of action expected to be taken, given one or more hypothetical assumptions. Financial projections may test investment proposals or demonstrate a best-case scenario.
  3. Budgets. Operating budgets are prepared in-house for internal purposes. They allocate money — usually revenues and expenses — for particular purposes over specified periods.

Though these terms are sometimes used interchangeably, there are important distinctions under the attestation standards set forth by the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA).

Factors to consider

Historical financial statements are often used to generate forecasts, projections and budgets. But accurate predictions usually require more work than simply multiplying last year’s operating results by a projected growth rate — especially over the long term.

For example, a high-growth business may be growing 20% annually, but that rate is likely unsustainable over time. Plus, the business’s facilities and fixed assets may lack sufficient capacity to handle growth expectations. If so, management may need to add assets or fixed expenses to take the company to the next level.

Similarly, it may not make sense to assume that annual depreciation expense will reasonably approximate the need for future capital expenditures. Consider a tax-basis entity that aggressively took advantage of the expanded Section 179 and bonus depreciation deductions in 2018, which permitted immediate expensing in the year qualifying fixed assets were purchased. Because depreciation was inflated by these tax incentives, a simple forecasting could lead to a materially inaccurate forecast with adverse consequences. 

Various external factors, such as changes in competition, product obsolescence and economic conditions, can affect future operations. Internal events can also affect future operations. For example, new or divested product lines, recent asset purchases, in-process research and development, and outstanding litigation can all materially affect future financial results.

Objective expertise

You may want to create prospective financial reports as part of your annual planning process. Or your lenders and stakeholders may require them when you apply for loans or value the business for corporate litigation. They are also useful when buying out a retiring owner or in a merger or acquisition. Whatever the reason for creating prospective financial statements, it’s important that the underlying assumptions be realistic and well thought out. We can provide objective insights that are based on industry and market trends, rather than simplistic formulas and gut instinct. Our team has a wealth of knowledge and experience in providing businesses with dynamic decision making data that allows our clients to grow and thrive.